Yili shares (600887) 2019 half-yearly report review: steady growth in performance, milk source layout and continuous optimization of product matrix

Yili shares (600887) 2019 half-yearly report review: steady growth in performance, milk source layout and continuous optimization of product matrix

I. Overview of the event The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 on August 29, and achieved a total operating income of 450 in the reporting period.

71 ppm, +12 for ten years.

83%; net profit attributable to mother 37.

810,000 yuan, ten years +9.

71%; basic EPS0.

62 yuan.

Second, analyze and judge that the revenue / profit growth rate is fast and stable, and the competition between the two strong players continues to be fierce.


81 trillion, +12 for each year.

83% / + 9.


The company’s revenue / net profit scale is still larger than Mengniu 399.


960,000 yuan, but revenue / net profit growth rate is lower than Mengniu15.

60% / 32.

96杭州桑拿网% level.

19H1 company gross profit margin 38.

58% every year -0.

09 averages, slightly lower than Mengniu’s 39.

09%, it is expected that the cost pressure of Yili is higher than that of Mengniu;

01%, Decade -0.

04 averages, 33 below Mengniu.

04%; sales expense ratio 24.

63% a year -0.

83 averages, lower than 28 of Mengniu.

33%; management expense ratio 4.

70%, ten years +1.

20 averages, higher than 3 of Mengniu.

97%; financial expense ratio -0.

32%, -0 per year.

41 averages, below 0 for Mengniu.


Mengniu even had a higher sales expense base due to the launch of the World Cup in 18H1, but the sales expense ratio in 19H1 dropped only slightly.

53ppt, showing that its market development strategy is more active, both in the air and on the ground; the company ‘s sales expense ratio has fallen 深圳spa会所 more than its rivals on a relatively high base, indicating that the 19H1 company ‘s expense placement has not achieved close follow, especially in the 19Q2 single quarter salesThe expense ratio has dropped significantly2.

87ppts should be the leader in 19Q2’s revenue gap and Mengniu.

Single-quarter revenue / net profit attributable to mothers for the second quarter of 2019 was 219.


05 ten percent, +8.67% / + 11.

83%, especially the income side only achieved a digital growth, indicating that the industry’s competitive pressure is still difficult to overcome.

Q2 gross profit margin 37.

13% a year -1.

42ppts; period expense rate 29.

98% a year -1.

29 units; sales expense ratio 25.

23% per year -2.

87 units; management expense ratio 4.

93%, ten years +1.

73 units; financial expense ratio -0.

18%, -0 per year.

16 units.

The upstream perfected the layout of milk sources, and the downstream strengthened the key product matrix 2019H1. The company’s liquid milk / milk powder and dairy products / cold beverage products revenue were 361.



00 ppm, at least +13.

2% / + 13.

4% / + 15.


Among them, the revenue of key products such as Jin Dian, An Muxi, Changqing, Gold Collar, and Changyi exceeded + 30%, which is higher than the overall growth rate, and the high growth of the key product matrix is prominent; the new product revenue accounted for 17%.

4%, one year +2.

6 units; each increase in e-commerce business income +31.


Compared with Mengniu, the core of Yili’s income gap lies in the liquid milk business, 13.

2% revenue growth lagged behind Mengniu’s 14.

4%; on average, the Mongolian milk powder business 43.

The 8% revenue growth rate is also significantly higher than Yili’s 13.


However, the high growth of the Mongolian milk powder business is mainly reflected in the Junlebao business unit, and Yashili only achieved 16.

2% revenue growth, so considering that in 19Q4 Junlebao will no longer be consolidated Mengniu, the difference in milk powder business in the second half will no longer be significant.

In terms of upstream milk source layout, Yili’s direction is to restructure the milk source layout. In the first half of the year, the company completed the acquisition of Westland, the second largest dairy cooperative in New Zealand.


07 times, the consideration is relatively reasonable.

The acquisition will ensure the company’s access to quality, stable milk sources and strengthen its exposure to the global market.

As of H1 2019, Yili’s comprehensive dairy production capacity reached 1126 per year.

Through the vigorous integration of high-quality milk sources at home and abroad, Yili will further improve the strategic layout to ensure a market competitive environment that responds to or more incentives in the future.

The board of directors passed the equity incentive plan, the coverage expanded, and the revenue forecast was strengthened. August 19, the company’s board of directors approved the equity incentive plan.
The minimum required compound growth rate of non-net profit for 23 years is +8.
2%, minimum ROE requirement is 15%, unlocking is not difficult.

Combining 19H1 Mengniu’s higher performance growth and more aggressive catch-up situation than the company, we predict that the core of the starting point for the design of the fair incentive plan is still revenue- and market-share-oriented.Sentence.
The equity incentive plan is intended to cover 474 people, and the coverage is further expanded than the 294 people in the 16-year incentive plan. It is expected that the benefit sharing mechanism between companies with broad coverage and core employees will become more and more normal in the future.

Third, profit forecast and investment recommendations The company is expected to achieve operating income of 898 in 19-21.



61 ppm, + 13% / + 12% / + 12% a year ago; the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 69 in 19-21.



30 ppm, + 8% / + 12% / + 13% per year corresponding to the latest EPS of the corresponding EPS is 1.



45 yuan, the current expected PE is 25/23/20 times, which is about 30 times lower than the overall estimate of the dairy industry.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

Fourth, risk warning: product sales are less than expected, gross profit margin has increased significantly, sales expenses have increased significantly, food safety issues, etc.