BYD (002594): High growth in the first half of the year awaits heavy volume of new models

BYD (002594): High growth in the first half of the year awaits heavy volume of new models

Event Overview 2019H1 achieved revenue of 621.

800 million, an increase of 14 in ten years.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 14.

5 ppm, an increase of 203 in ten years.

6%, net profit after deducting non-return to mother 7.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 210 in ten years.

0%.

Among them, 2019Q2 revenue was 318.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

4%; net profit attributable to mother 7.

1 ppm, an increase of 87 in ten years.

1%.

After deducting non-return to mother’s net profit3.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 195 in ten years.

3%.

2019Q1-Q3 performance indicators: Expected net profit attributable to mother 15.

6 ppm-17.

6 trillion, corresponding to the growth rate of 1.

8% -14.

9%.

  Analysis and judgment: The sales of new energy vehicles have significantly increased driving revenue growth. In terms of business, 2019H1 automotive business, mobile phone foundry, and secondary battery revenue were 339.

800 million, 233.

200 million, 44.

500 million, the annual growth rate was 16.

3%, 14.

4%, -1

6%.

1) Automotive business: 2019H1 new energy vehicle revenue 254.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.

8%, the 厦门夜网 proportion of revenue further increased to 40.

9%, benefiting from the high growth of the company’s new energy vehicle sales.

According to the data of China Automobile Association, the cumulative sales volume of BYD new energy vehicles in 2019H1 is 15.

730,000 vehicles, an increase of 74 in ten years.

34%, a significant increase in sales driven revenue growth.

2) Mobile phone foundry: 2017H1 and 2018H1 basically maintained a steady growth of 10% +, and continued to grow at about 4% in 2017 and 2018.

3) Secondary batteries: For the time being, it is mainly dragged down by the photovoltaic business. The domestic installed capacity of photovoltaics in 2019H1 is 11.

4 GW, a decrease of more than 50%.

  Expense control strengthened to enhance profitability 2019H1 company gross profit margin17.
1%, increase by 1 every year.
2杭州桑拿pct, mainly due to the significant increase in the gross profit margin of the automotive business.

In terms of products, the gross profit margin of the automotive business in 2019H1 was 23.

2%, an increase of 4 per year.

5pct; mobile phone foundry gross margin is 8.

6%, a decline of 3 per year.

9 points.

Net interest rate 2.

7%, increase by 1 every year.

0pct, mainly due to the strengthening of cost management and control caused the continuous decline in sales expense ratio1.

2 points to 3.

7%, the financial expense ratio fell slightly to zero in ten years.

2 points to 2.

3%.

The management expense ratio and R & D expense ratio increase slightly every year.

1pct and 0.

2pct.

In a single quarter, the gross profit margin for 2019Q2 was 15.

8%, 0 per year.

4pct, net interest rate 2.

4%, a year to raise 0.

3pct, R & D expense ratio, management expense ratio, and sales expense ratio decreased by 3.

3pct, 2.

8pct, 1.

1pct.

  Focus on new energy vehicle business: short-term new model-driven growth, long-term focus on increasing urban share.

  The continuously developing new energy vehicle business and the continuous development of gradual research and development. The company has achieved independent control of the technology of the new energy vehicle industry chain in power batteries and IGBTs, and has continuously improved its product line, covering both pure electric and hybrid technology routes., From the low-end to the high-end, from A00 to B, to meet a variety of consumer needs.

The company announced the sales of Xinneng Automobile in July 20191.

70,000 vehicles, down 11 every year.

8%, mainly due to subsidy decline and superimposed off-season effects.

The supplementary tax rebate caused short-term pressure on the company’s performance, but in the long run, it promotes the advantages and disadvantages of the new energy vehicle industry. The company is committed to introducing the independent controllable advantages of the new energy vehicle industry technology and the entire product line to gain more market share.

And the double-point policy relays the compensation for the downgrade to ensure the growth of the industry. Through the second half of the year, the company will launch new models such as e2, e3, the new Qin EV and e1, and a new generation of Song.High growth rate.

  Investment suggestions We believe that the company’s new energy vehicles are expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2019, and it is expected to become an independent and controllable technological advantage of core components and improve its product line to gain more market share. It is expected that revenues will increase by 15 in 2019-2020.

7% and an increase of 18.

1%, reaching 1505.

3 ppm and 1777.

500 million, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 16.

6% and an increase of 32.

8%, reaching 32.

4 ppm and 43.
0 million yuan, EPS is 1.
19 yuan and 1.

58 yuan, corresponding to 43 times and 33 times of the current PE.

With reference to the company’s historical PE interval center 35-38 times, in view of the company’s new models launched this year, the company’s PE estimate for 37 times in 2020, the target price of 58.

46 yuan, the first coverage given “overweight” rating.

  Risks suggest that the sales volume of the new energy automobile industry is lower than expected, the sales of new models are lower than expected, and the market share is lower than expected.