A-share performance period is approaching foreign cautious attractions, and layout of high-barrier companies
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Original title: A-share performance period is approaching, foreign countries are cautiously following hot spots, and global stock markets with high-barrier companies have continued to rebound since the fourth quarter of 2019, and multiple spots of A-shares have been sought after by the market.
However, this translates into an improvement in the performance disclosure period, and the truth of the crowded “attraction companies” will be tested again.
As of January 16, a total of 750 A-share listed companies released the 2019 annual report performance forecast, of which 548 were expected to be happy and 202 were expected to lose.
Institutions also believe that goodwill risks remain vigilant this year.
After the A-share “starter”, how exactly will the subsequent market be interpreted?
In the context of crowded attractions, how will active foreign countries be deployed?
In this regard, Xu Tao, an investment manager of Bi Sheng Asset Management (APS)淡水桑拿网, said in an exclusive interview with First Financial reporter that “the current market is quite crowded, including 5G or Huawei’s industrial chain, and last year’s cyclical stocks that all sectors considered to be undervalued.Some companies’ advances have almost reflected the profit expectations for many years to come.
In 2020, the market’s breakthrough focus fell on the performance expectations in 2021. Therefore, the focus of the allocation in the first half of the year needs to be transformed from hype, the company must be more carefully selected, and the layout of long-term continuous competition barriers, relatively uncongested, and reasonable conversion.Of companies, types of companies are still the targets of long-term outperformance.
APS is an early (2004) foreign institution that participated in domestic A-share investment through QFII quotas. Its style is more localized. Currently, it includes Bi Sheng, Qiaoshui, BlackRock, Fu Dun and other WFOE (foreign-owned enterprises) in China.) Has obtained an investment advisory license.
Beware of “congestion in transactions”
Recently, a series of established foreign investors interviewed by First Financial News said that “congestion in transactions”
has become a problem to be vigilant, especially during the performance period, and it is also an opportunity for differentiated layout.
According to the report of the Haitong Securities Research Institute, in terms of the position of PE in various industries since 2005 (100% is the largest, 0% is the smallest), computers are located at 93%, communications are 89%, electronic components are 82%, and home appliances are 60%.
Under the ranking, real estate is 7%, building materials 7%, and construction 5%.
”The most intuitive example is to use Fuyao Glass as a reference. Its share in the global automotive glass supply is as high as 30%, and its share in the Chinese market is as high as 70%.
But in proportion, the market value of companies such as some fractures and potassium fluoride are also approaching the same level.
From a long-term perspective, the bubble has accumulated, and after entering the mature period, it is estimated that it may face the risk of major contraction.
“Xu Tao said.
The current 5G industry chain is typical of high estimates and crowded transactions.
Although there are some opinions that the high estimate does not mean that there is no room for continued growth in the future, because referring to the 4G cycle, 5G capital expenditure will be a continuous expenditure process. Although the investment will not meet expectations and may fluctuate in the process,The trend does not end.
The problem, however, is that many companies currently have previously factored in profits for many years to come.
APS research also found that from 4G to 5G, half of the added value will be obtained by TSMC, which shows that the biggest beneficiary is not in A shares.
The latest financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2019, TSMC achieved revenue of 3172.
NT $ 3.7 billion (about 730.
2 ppm), exceeding market expectations and growing by 9 per year.
5%, an increase of 8 from the previous month.
3%; net profit is 1160.
3.5 billion Taiwan dollars (about 267.
08 ppm), an increase of 16 per year.
1%, an increase of 14 from the previous quarter.
85%; net profit increased by 36.
”Therefore, we also need to avoid excessive speculation on Huawei’s industrial chain.
Huawei has almost exclusively contracted the most advanced technology products, such as Hisilicon chips, and the foundry companies are responsible for technical content parts, so there are really high barriers to competition and limited high-tech companies.
“Xu Tao also believes that,” different from Apple’s industrial chain, the problem of Huawei’s industrial chain is that the relevant suppliers’ bargaining power is not strong and Huawei’s products are updated quickly. Therefore, when the supplier is still halfway through the ramp-up period of capacity, that is, capacity utilizationThe rate is only 50%?
At 60%, new products are often replaced, which will squeeze the profitability of related companies.
“Budget and related consumer electronics concepts are constantly rebounding. All circles believe that this is related to the” Apple New Year “in 2020, but many exchange fund managers interviewed pointed out that even the New Year can only fully reflect the current situation.It is expected that if indicators such as replenishment thereafter exceed expectations, or the impact on expectations.
“In 2020, two of the most important selling points of mobile phones are 5G communication capabilities and camera optical functions.
It is true that the volume of mobile phones will increase slightly in 2020, but most consumers will not change phones until the personal replacement cycle is reached, and they will not change phones early because of 5G. After all, the killer application of 5G mobile phones has not yet appeared.
“A foreign agency TMT analyst reporter mentioned.
What’s more worth mentioning is that cyclical stocks have been a hot spot in the market over the past few months. The cement and other sectors have risen more than expected. The logic behind it is that infrastructure investment has stabilized and the global economy is picking up. Improving domestic and foreign demand may drive PPI.And the growth rate of industrial enterprises’ interest rates rose moderately.
“But the prices of most cyclical stocks have fully reflected the expectation of economic stability. The current policy is more about a” stable economy “rather than a” strong stimulus “, so the expected difference in infrastructure investment is very small.
“Xu Tao said.
High-barrier companies will outperform in the medium and long term. After the attractions have been blasted back and forth, some people lament that the good bids are too expensive, but others are overweight and temporarily left out.
At present, such as some high-quality real estate companies, cyber security concept companies have been replaced by many established foreign investors for strategic layout targets.
As for food and beverage, home appliances and other foreign keen layouts, Xu Tao believes that even the recent transfer has improved, but at this time it may be a good time to “catch up”.
“Just 2020 needs to be further carefully selected, the growth rate of the included industry will slow down, and the differentiation of food and beverages, home appliances and medicine will continue to increase.
“As far as real estate is concerned, through the acceleration of industry consolidation, the leaders with obvious first and second-tier advantages and high turnover rates are undoubtedly high barrier enterprises in the eyes of foreign exchange.
Recently, foreign countries have also paid more attention to China’s urbanization2.
0 Potential for Real Estate.
“China has high-level experience in developing large urban agglomerations such as Europe, the United States, and Japan, and the current policy of real estate in cities, which is good for real estate developers in that it complements urbanization2.
0 demand, the overall demand is more stable, and the gradual transformation declines, and after the policy change is reduced, the intrinsic value can be further focused.
At the same time, real estate inventory is currently generally low, so there is also a potential difference in expectations.
Xu Tao told reporters.
Morgan Stanley, a developing country, also noted that the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Greater Bay Area, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and Chengdu-Chongqing, the five super metropolitan areas, will lead to urbanization2.
The positive consensus is that the strategy places greater emphasis on the establishment of megacities in developed regions, is more market-oriented, and avoids inefficient investments in overpopulated and remote areas.
This is different from previous regional rebalancing and replacement (including the “Western Development” from 2000 and the “Northeast Revitalization” from 2004). These changes will reduce the regional income gap and reduce the pressure on the population to move to developed coastal areas.
Because of this, APS has now returned the leading land to “growth Alpha (excessive returns)”. This kind of Alpha is stable and generally acceptable (positions greater than 3 years), accounting for 70% of APS ‘s total positions?
“For example, in the early years, Moutai, Guizhou was a typical leader in consumer upgrades. Of course, it also includes information security concept stocks. Such stocks seem not cheap, but in the long run, 30?
40 times PE still has good investment value.
“Xu Tao said.
At the same time, the field of network information security is also a key area for foreign mining of long-term high barriers.
Founder Securities (right protection) has been cited, and network security has become the fourth largest IT infrastructure for networks, computing, and storage.
As an accompanying requirement of the IT industry, network security has been transformed into a continuous development of network security and is shifting to basic needs.
The proportion of China’s IT security industry investment is much lower than the US and global averages. In the future, the proportion of China’s IT security expansion will continue to increase.
More core asset assessments will enhance another trend that has attracted much attention since last year, such as Han’s Laser (002008.
SZ), Shanghai Airport (600009.
SH) and other foreign favored targets are on the verge of “buying explosive”. Recently, Midea Group (000333).
SZ) foreign shareholding ratio is approaching the position limit.
According to the relevant regulations of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, the sum of all foreign investors’ shareholdings in the A-shares of a merged listed company shall not exceed 30% of the total shares of the listed company.
In this regard, Xu Tao also told reporters that there were still a small number of targets that were “buyed”, and foreign countries would continue to differentiate and overweight other high-quality targets.
“Although MSCI suspended the expansion of the A-share split in the first half of 2020, active capital will continue to be injected into the value-added core assets of China. This trend will continue for a long time, and the estimation of core assets will continue to increase in the future.
Pioneer Pilot recently said that in the long run, global assets will continue to face a low return environment. Global investment “60/40 rule” portfolio (60% stock market, 40% bond market) can obtain an average annual return of 10% since 1970There have been 7 since 1980.
An average return of 5%, which will drop to 4% in the next ten years?
6%, so the Chinese bond market is also a destination for investors to seek relatively high returns.
Xu Tao believes that under the trend of institutionalization and internationalization, A-shares are experiencing great changes caused by changes in investor structure.
Therefore, looking at the problem from a historical perspective and replacing the current new changes, it is easy to cause misjudgments such as “white horse crash” and “estimate bubble”.
Therefore, for “true white horse”, its estimation system will gradually be in line with international standards.