Suntec Technology (002815) 2019 Semi-annual Report Review: Looking forward to the small batch board leader in the 5G era when the strategic transformation is underway

Suntec Technology (002815) 2019 Semi-annual 武汉夜生活网 Report Review: Looking forward to the small batch board leader in the 5G era when the strategic transformation is underway

Company dynamics The company released its 2019 Interim Report on August 14, which disclosed the company’s operating income for the period18.

$ 5.1 billion, an annual increase of 2.

02%; net profit attributable to non-attributed mothers2.

5.6 billion, a decline of 2 every year.

21%; realized net profit attributable to mother 2.

6.5 billion, down 5 each year.


Matter reviews Supercomputing and 5G orders show the company’s product structure optimization results. The company’s main products are small-volume PCBs. The products cover HDI, thick copper, backplanes, rigid-flex joints, buried capacity and buried circuit boards.Including communication equipment (30%), industrial control (25%), automotive electronics (12%), medical equipment (10%), security electronics (10%), aerospace (8%).

The company’s product structure continues to upgrade, and high-end products such as supercomputing and 5G have been recognized by downstream customers.

The company completed 重庆耍耍网 22 supercomputing orders of CLP Power this year, and its main products are high-speed boards.

In terms of 5G business, the company newly entered ZTE business, opening up 5G business space next year.

In addition, the company’s subsidiary Sandeguan achieved sales revenue in the first half of 20195.

8.2 billion, an increase of 18 over the same period last year.

39%, achieving a net profit of 0.

76 ppm, an increase of 52 over the same period last year.


In June this year, it acquired a 40% stake in Punoway, officially opening the layout of the IC carrier board field.

Fixed asset turnover ratio temporarily improved. Low asset-liability ratio and cash flow indicators improved. From the perspective of profitability, the company’s gross profit margin during the period was 31.

76%, a decrease of 0 every year.

9pct, the decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the company’s fixed asset turnover rate (0.

9) Still low.

Net interest rate for the company period 14.

31%, down by 1 every year.

02pct, mainly related to the increase in research and development expenses and the provision of fair incentive expenses.

In terms of operating capacity, the company’s inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days were 46 respectively.

0 and 71.

7, the same period last year were 46.

5 and 70.

In terms of capital structure and debt repayment ability, the company’s asset-liability ratio is 42.

2%, a decline of 4 per year.

5 points, mainly because short-term debt decreases by 19 each year.


The company’s current ratio and quick ratio are 1.

3 and 1.

1, the same period last year were 1.

5 and 1.

3.From the perspective of the company’s cash flow, the company’s net operating cash flow / revenue during the period was 23.

2, the same period last year was 18.

Corporate free cash flow during the period1.

5 trillion, -4 in the same period last year.

500 million, the company’s cash flow situation improved.

PCB capacity expansion welcomes 5G new cycle. FPC and carrier board business together. Localized dividend company in 2018. The production capacity in 2018 is mainly concentrated in Jiangmen Sunda (Phase 1 and Phase 2), Shenzhen Sunda, and Dalian Sunda.
The company actively expands production capacity and prepares for the new PCB cycle brought by the Internet of Everything in the 5G era.

In 2019, the Zhuhai Chongda project is expected to add 2.1 million square meters per year, and the planned capacity of the third-phase project is 6.4 million square meters per year. It is expected that the annual output value will reach 4 billion yuan after reaching capacity.

The company’s announcement in June is intended to be 2.

Nantong Chongda Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. was established with USD 100 million. The planned products include IC carrier boards and 5G high-frequency high-speed boards. The output value is expected to be USD 5 billion.

In addition, Suntech (Zhuhai) and Nuowei (Kunshan) will further increase production capacity, with future output value plans of 4 billion and 1 billion, respectively.

We believe that the company’s PCB production capacity is upgraded to a new 5G cycle to consolidate the production capacity foundation, and the FPC and carrier board business will benefit from the domestic domestic substitution bonus.

Earnings Forecast and Estimates We expect the company to achieve operating income of 40-20 in 2019-2021.

03 billion, 49.

2.4 billion, 63.

520,000 yuan, with annual growth of 9 yuan.

50%, 23.

00% and 29.

00%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is 6.

5.1 billion, 8.

54 ppm and 11.

39 ppm, an increase of 16 per year.

16%, 31.

14% and 33.

36%; EPS are 0.

78 yuan, 1.

02 yuan and 1.

36 yuan, corresponding to 25 for PE.

41, 19.

38 and 14.


In the next six months, the first coverage will be given to the “overweight” rating.

Jiuguijiu (000799) research briefing: product structure focuses on high-end provincial markets and has potential

Jiuguijiu (000799) research briefing: product structure focuses on high-end provincial markets and has potential
Investment 武汉夜生活网 points: Product structure focuses on high-end companies. There are currently three major series of products, ultra-high-end “internal reference” series, high-end “jiujiujiu” series, and low-end “Xiangquan” series. Since the company’s production capacity is less than 1, it needs to expand production.Better time, in order to maximize the benefits, the company’s overall product structure focuses on high-end, strategically reduce sales of low-end “Xiangquan” and expand sales of ultra-high-end “internal reference” wine.As a result, the company’s premium wine (including internal reference and alcoholic liquor series) also continued to increase, from 77% in 2011 to 87% in 2018. In addition, in order to improve the company’s operating efficiency, the company reduced SKUs, highlighted strategic single products, and set up an internal reference wine sales company with a large business shareholding system.The number of SKUs started in 2018 is controlled to less than 75, which is a 25% decrease every year.The strategic single products are prominently internal reference, Red Alcoholic Alcoholic, and Alcoholic Alcoholic Heritage Edition. The resources are focused on these three products.In December 2018, the company established an internal reference wine sales company. The internal reference sales company was established by the participation of 30 large-scale large-scale distributors (most of them are Maotai and Wuliangye).By constraining the interests of large distributors, the company has enabled it, as a private enterprise, to operate the market more flexibly and promote higher growth of internal reference wine. The sustainable potential of liquor in the province’s market is the only medium-to-high-end liquor listed company in Hunan. The overall operating scale is still very small, and the company’s sales revenue in 201811.8.7 billion, of which Central China, mainly Hunan Province, has only 7.1.4 billion.The sales revenue scale of Jiuguijiu is much lower than that of Gujing Gongjiu, a medium-to-high-end real estate wine listed company in Anhui Province and Yanghe Co., Ltd., a medium-to-high-end real estate wine listed company in Jiangsu Province.Gujing Gongjiu’s income in 2018 was 86.71 ppm, of which Central China, mainly Anhui Province, earned 78.6.7 billion.Yanghe’s 2018 revenue was 231.870,000 yuan, including 116 in Jiangsu Province.1.2 billion. Undoubtedly, Jiujiu Liquor Co., Ltd. further clarified the strategy of deepening the base camp in Hunan and achieved better results.In 2018, the sales revenue of Central China with Hunan as its core increased by 39 each year.13%, accounting for 60% of the company’s total revenue.19%.The company’s full coverage of county-level market channels in Hunan Province will allow its stores to sink to the district / county level.In the future, through the in-depth cultivation strategy of the market in Hunan Province, we believe that alcoholic wine has growth potential in Hunan Province. Earnings forecast and investment rating: Maintain “Overweight” rating. Since the company established the internal reference wine sales company, increased dealer incentives, and early market expenses, we lowered the company’s profit forecast and forecasted the company’s EPS in 2019/2020/2021 respectively.Is 0.83/0.99/1.18 yuan, corresponding to PE for 2019/2020/2021 is 28.96/24.07/20.34 times.At the same time, we believe that the company is optimistic about the market development potential of the company and maintain its rating as “overweight”. Risk Warning: The product structure upgrade is not up to expectations, the market in the province is not up to expectations, the downside of the macro economy, the impact of intensified industry competition, and food safety.

A-share performance period is approaching foreign cautious attractions, and layout of high-barrier companies

A-share performance period is approaching foreign cautious attractions, and layout of high-barrier companies

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Original title: A-share performance period is approaching, foreign countries are cautiously following hot spots, and global stock markets with high-barrier companies have continued to rebound since the fourth quarter of 2019, and multiple spots of A-shares have been sought after by the market.

However, this translates into an improvement in the performance disclosure period, and the truth of the crowded “attraction companies” will be tested again.

As of January 16, a total of 750 A-share listed companies released the 2019 annual report performance forecast, of which 548 were expected to be happy and 202 were expected to lose.

Institutions also believe that goodwill risks remain vigilant this year.

  After the A-share “starter”, how exactly will the subsequent market be interpreted?

In the context of crowded attractions, how will active foreign countries be deployed?

In this regard, Xu Tao, an investment manager of Bi Sheng Asset Management (APS)淡水桑拿网, said in an exclusive interview with First Financial reporter that “the current market is quite crowded, including 5G or Huawei’s industrial chain, and last year’s cyclical stocks that all sectors considered to be undervalued.Some companies’ advances have almost reflected the profit expectations for many years to come.

In 2020, the market’s breakthrough focus fell on the performance expectations in 2021. Therefore, the focus of the allocation in the first half of the year needs to be transformed from hype, the company must be more carefully selected, and the layout of long-term continuous competition barriers, relatively uncongested, and reasonable conversion.Of companies, types of companies are still the targets of long-term outperformance.

APS is an early (2004) foreign institution that participated in domestic A-share investment through QFII quotas. Its style is more localized. Currently, it includes Bi Sheng, Qiaoshui, BlackRock, Fu Dun and other WFOE (foreign-owned enterprises) in China.) Has obtained an investment advisory license.

  Beware of “congestion in transactions”
Recently, a series of established foreign investors interviewed by First Financial News said that “congestion in transactions”
has become a problem to be vigilant, especially during the performance period, and it is also an opportunity for differentiated layout.

According to the report of the Haitong Securities Research Institute, in terms of the position of PE in various industries since 2005 (100% is the largest, 0% is the smallest), computers are located at 93%, communications are 89%, electronic components are 82%, and home appliances are 60%.
Under the ranking, real estate is 7%, building materials 7%, and construction 5%.

  ”The most intuitive example is to use Fuyao Glass as a reference. Its share in the global automotive glass supply is as high as 30%, and its share in the Chinese market is as high as 70%.

But in proportion, the market value of companies such as some fractures and potassium fluoride are also approaching the same level.

From a long-term perspective, the bubble has accumulated, and after entering the mature period, it is estimated that it may face the risk of major contraction.

“Xu Tao said.

  The current 5G industry chain is typical of high estimates and crowded transactions.

Although there are some opinions that the high estimate does not mean that there is no room for continued growth in the future, because referring to the 4G cycle, 5G capital expenditure will be a continuous expenditure process. Although the investment will not meet expectations and may fluctuate in the process,The trend does not end.

The problem, however, is that many companies currently have previously factored in profits for many years to come.

  APS research also found that from 4G to 5G, half of the added value will be obtained by TSMC, which shows that the biggest beneficiary is not in A shares.

The latest financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2019, TSMC achieved revenue of 3172.

NT $ 3.7 billion (about 730.

2 ppm), exceeding market expectations and growing by 9 per year.

5%, an increase of 8 from the previous month.

3%; net profit is 1160.

3.5 billion Taiwan dollars (about 267.

08 ppm), an increase of 16 per year.

1%, an increase of 14 from the previous quarter.

85%; net profit increased by 36.


  ”Therefore, we also need to avoid excessive speculation on Huawei’s industrial chain.

Huawei has almost exclusively contracted the most advanced technology products, such as Hisilicon chips, and the foundry companies are responsible for technical content parts, so there are really high barriers to competition and limited high-tech companies.

“Xu Tao also believes that,” different from Apple’s industrial chain, the problem of Huawei’s industrial chain is that the relevant suppliers’ bargaining power is not strong and Huawei’s products are updated quickly. Therefore, when the supplier is still halfway through the ramp-up period of capacity, that is, capacity utilizationThe rate is only 50%?
At 60%, new products are often replaced, which will squeeze the profitability of related companies.

“Budget and related consumer electronics concepts are constantly rebounding. All circles believe that this is related to the” Apple New Year “in 2020, but many exchange fund managers interviewed pointed out that even the New Year can only fully reflect the current situation.It is expected that if indicators such as replenishment thereafter exceed expectations, or the impact on expectations.

“In 2020, two of the most important selling points of mobile phones are 5G communication capabilities and camera optical functions.

It is true that the volume of mobile phones will increase slightly in 2020, but most consumers will not change phones until the personal replacement cycle is reached, and they will not change phones early because of 5G. After all, the killer application of 5G mobile phones has not yet appeared.
“A foreign agency TMT analyst reporter mentioned.
  What’s more worth mentioning is that cyclical stocks have been a hot spot in the market over the past few months. The cement and other sectors have risen more than expected. The logic behind it is that infrastructure investment has stabilized and the global economy is picking up. Improving domestic and foreign demand may drive PPI.And the growth rate of industrial enterprises’ interest rates rose moderately.

“But the prices of most cyclical stocks have fully reflected the expectation of economic stability. The current policy is more about a” stable economy “rather than a” strong stimulus “, so the expected difference in infrastructure investment is very small.

“Xu Tao said.
  High-barrier companies will outperform in the medium and long term. After the attractions have been blasted back and forth, some people lament that the good bids are too expensive, but others are overweight and temporarily left out.

At present, such as some high-quality real estate companies, cyber security concept companies have been replaced by many established foreign investors for strategic layout targets.

  As for food and beverage, home appliances and other foreign keen layouts, Xu Tao believes that even the recent transfer has improved, but at this time it may be a good time to “catch up”.

“Just 2020 needs to be further carefully selected, the growth rate of the included industry will slow down, and the differentiation of food and beverages, home appliances and medicine will continue to increase.

“As far as real estate is concerned, through the acceleration of industry consolidation, the leaders with obvious first and second-tier advantages and high turnover rates are undoubtedly high barrier enterprises in the eyes of foreign exchange.

Recently, foreign countries have also paid more attention to China’s urbanization2.

0 Potential for Real Estate.

“China has high-level experience in developing large urban agglomerations such as Europe, the United States, and Japan, and the current policy of real estate in cities, which is good for real estate developers in that it complements urbanization2.

0 demand, the overall demand is more stable, and the gradual transformation declines, and after the policy change is reduced, the intrinsic value can be further focused.

At the same time, real estate inventory is currently generally low, so there is also a potential difference in expectations.

Xu Tao told reporters.

  Morgan Stanley, a developing country, also noted that the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Greater Bay Area, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and Chengdu-Chongqing, the five super metropolitan areas, will lead to urbanization2.

The positive consensus is that the strategy places greater emphasis on the establishment of megacities in developed regions, is more market-oriented, and avoids inefficient investments in overpopulated and remote areas.

This is different from previous regional rebalancing and replacement (including the “Western Development” from 2000 and the “Northeast Revitalization” from 2004). These changes will reduce the regional income gap and reduce the pressure on the population to move to developed coastal areas.

  Because of this, APS has now returned the leading land to “growth Alpha (excessive returns)”. This kind of Alpha is stable and generally acceptable (positions greater than 3 years), accounting for 70% of APS ‘s total positions?
“For example, in the early years, Moutai, Guizhou was a typical leader in consumer upgrades. Of course, it also includes information security concept stocks. Such stocks seem not cheap, but in the long run, 30?
40 times PE still has good investment value.

“Xu Tao said.
  At the same time, the field of network information security is also a key area for foreign mining of long-term high barriers.

Founder Securities (right protection) has been cited, and network security has become the fourth largest IT infrastructure for networks, computing, and storage.

As an accompanying requirement of the IT industry, network security has been transformed into a continuous development of network security and is shifting to basic needs.

The proportion of China’s IT security industry investment is much lower than the US and global averages. In the future, the proportion of China’s IT security expansion will continue to increase.

  More core asset assessments will enhance another trend that has attracted much attention since last year, such as Han’s Laser (002008.

SZ), Shanghai Airport (600009.

SH) and other foreign favored targets are on the verge of “buying explosive”. Recently, Midea Group (000333).

SZ) foreign shareholding ratio is approaching the position limit.

According to the relevant regulations of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, the sum of all foreign investors’ shareholdings in the A-shares of a merged listed company shall not exceed 30% of the total shares of the listed company.

  In this regard, Xu Tao also told reporters that there were still a small number of targets that were “buyed”, and foreign countries would continue to differentiate and overweight other high-quality targets.

“Although MSCI suspended the expansion of the A-share split in the first half of 2020, active capital will continue to be injected into the value-added core assets of China. This trend will continue for a long time, and the estimation of core assets will continue to increase in the future.

Pioneer Pilot recently said that in the long run, global assets will continue to face a low return environment. Global investment “60/40 rule” portfolio (60% stock market, 40% bond market) can obtain an average annual return of 10% since 1970There have been 7 since 1980.

An average return of 5%, which will drop to 4% in the next ten years?
6%, so the Chinese bond market is also a destination for investors to seek relatively high returns.

  Xu Tao believes that under the trend of institutionalization and internationalization, A-shares are experiencing great changes caused by changes in investor structure.

Therefore, looking at the problem from a historical perspective and replacing the current new changes, it is easy to cause misjudgments such as “white horse crash” and “estimate bubble”.
Therefore, for “true white horse”, its estimation system will gradually be in line with international standards.

Boss Electric (002508) 2018 Annual Report Review: Significantly Improved Performance Passes Positive Signal in Quarterly Report

Boss Electric (002508) 2018 Annual Report Review: Significantly Improved Performance Passes Positive Signal in Quarterly Report
[Investment Highlights]The company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report. In 2018, the company achieved operating income of 74.2.5 billion, an annual increase of 5.81%; realized net profit attributable to mother 14.740,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.85%. Among them, the 18Q4 company achieved operating income of 20.31 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.08%; net profit attributable to mother 4.62 ppm, a ten-year average of 7.75%.The company achieved operating income in the first quarter of 201916.60 ppm, a ten-year increase4.30%; achieve net profit attributable to mother 3.20 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.84%; net profit after deductions increased by 8%.55%. The bottom of the industry has already appeared, and the first quarterly report sends positive signals.In 19Q1, the company’s revenue and non-deductible performance growth rates improved significantly from the previous month4.22/27.93pct, we think 1) The improvement of the income side is mainly due to the rebound in terminal sales. The resettlement of housing sales data in 19Q1 began to pick up. The company ‘s engineering channels accounted for 40% of the leading industry, which enabled the company to expand its third- and fourth-tier markets in 18 years.68 new city companies and 535 new specialty stores were added. In 19Q1, the company ‘s revenue growth in the third and fourth tier markets began to materialize. According to data from Zhongyikang, the offline market for smoke stoves has improved significantly since March. Range hoods and gas stovesRetail sales increased by 3 each year.31% / 3.27%, a significant improvement from January to February, and the company as a leader further benefited from the recovery in demand; 2) The improvement in the performance side mainly came from the stabilization of raw material prices and the upgrade of product structure, with a gross profit margin of 54 in 19Q1.79%, an improvement of 2 per year / mo.47/0.67pct, the price of raw materials gradually dropped from 18Q4, the company continued to develop new products, the main product steam box / boiler increased by 38% / 55% in 18 years, it is expected that the new products in 19Q1 will further contribute to revenue. Expenses increased in the same direction, and net interest margin increased slightly.18Q4 / 19Q1 company’s sales expense ratio increased by 8.69/2.41pct. The sales expenses in the fourth quarter were reduced. The materials are related to the company’s year-end promotional activities. After entering the first quarter, the company strengthened the optimization of the management structure. The 19Q1 management expense ratio replaced 3.31pct, the overall increase in net interest rate.51 points. Abundant cash in hand, without fear of short-term changes in cash flow.In 19Q1, the company’s net operating cash flow increased by 69.60%, we think it may be related to the company’s initiative to adjust the scheduling rhythm and 南京夜网 give the dealer a certain credit line under the consideration of the industry boom and dealer pressure. At the same time, the increase in engineering channels and the extension of the e-commerce channel account period also lead to receivables.With the increase of accounts receivable, the current accounts receivable and bills receivable of the company increased by 43.21%, corresponding to a ten-year increase in inventory.52%. But the company had plenty of cash at hand in 19Q1, reaching 49.07 billion (31.22 billion currency funds and 17.85 million other current assets), not afraid of sudden changes in short-term cash flow. [Investment suggestion]The company is a leader in the kitchen appliance industry. At the current signal of the bottom of the industry has been significant, and the first quarter report has improved 杭州夜网论坛 significantly, we are still optimistic about the company’s future growth logic gradually realized.Considering that the impact of real estate is a long-term process, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 19 and 20 and supplemented the profit forecast for 2021. It is expected that the company’s revenue in 19/20/21 will reach 80.27/90.42/101.4.6 billion, net profit attributable to mother 16.22/18.24/20.4.4 billion, EPS1.71/1.92/2.15 yuan, corresponding to PE16.91/15.03/13.42 times, maintain “Buy” rating. [Risk Tips]The real estate boom will further decline; raw material prices will rise; industry competition will intensify.

Fuyao Glass (600660): 19Q3 revenue stabilizes and rises; gross profit margin improves month-on-month

Fuyao Glass (600660): 19Q3 revenue stabilizes and rises; gross profit margin improves month-on-month
Fuyao Glass announced the third quarter of 2019 on the evening of October 30.In 19Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 156.3.4 billion, +3 per year.38%; net profit attributable to mother is 23.47 ppm, -28 per year.07%; net profit after deduction is 21.26 ppm, at least -24.49%. In 19Q3, the company’s revenue rebounded steadily, and net profit attributable to mothers increased significantly.19Q1-3, the company’s maximum profit limit -28.24%, if the same period last year excluded the one-time gain of 51% equity in the subsidiary Beijing Futong4.51 trillion, the profit is maximized for one year -18.98%.Looking at the single quarter, the revenue of the company in 19Q3 was ten years +6.14%, 杭州夜网论坛 stabilized and rebounded in the context of the continuous decline of the automotive industry; the decline in net profit attributable to mothers was transmitted until -39.65%, our judgment is mainly due to the sale of Beijing Futong during the same period last year to confirm the one-time gain and the automotive industry downturn and other factors. The gross profit margin increased quarter-on-quarter and the expense ratio was well controlled during the period.19Q3 company gross margin ten years -6.90 pct, +1 ring.14 pct; net interest rate ten years -11.93 pct, -1 ring.07.The company’s period expenses are well controlled, and the expense ratio during the 19Q3 period is half a year-1.61 pct, -0 ring.47 pcts, of which the sales / management (including R & D) / financial expense ratios decreased by 0.09/1.46/0.06. The company’s cash flow is good and its currency reserves are abundant.In 19Q3, the company’s net cash flow was 10.4.4 billion, an increase of 8 from the previous month.1.5 billion, an increase of 14 every year.77 ppm, of which net cash flows from operating activities.6.6 billion.As of the end of the third quarter of 19, the company’s monetary funds reached 94.44 trillion, +48 a year.36%, mainly due to increased working capital requirements and increased cash reserves. Earnings forecasts and investment advice.The company is a leader in the automotive glass industry. The market structure at home and abroad has been further optimized. The profitability of American companies has begun to increase, and the proportion of high value-added products has further expanded.It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 31.75/36.29/42.1.5 billion, with EPS of 1.27/1.45/1.68 yuan, BPS is 9 respectively.33/10.78/12.46 yuan.With reference to the expected level of comparable companies and taking into account the company’s high dividend level, liquidity advantage and industry distribution, it is given 18-20 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range22.86-25.40 yuan, corresponding to 2 PB.45-2.72 times, maintain “previous market” rating. risk warning.Sales of new models of major customers fell short of expectations; trade frictions intensified; raw material price fluctuations intensified.

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809): Revenue growth meets expected profit benefits and tax cuts exceed expectations

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809): Revenue growth meets expected profit benefits and tax cuts exceed expectations

Event: The company announced its 2019 Interim Report and achieved revenue 63.

7.7 billion, net profit attributable to mother 11.

900 million, net of non-attributed net profit11.

8.9 billion, due to the acquisition of the group’s alcoholic assets Yiquan Chung and Baoquan Chung in March and June of this year, which further reduced related-party transactions, and after the adjustment, they have grown repeatedly under the same caliber.

3 %%, 26.

28%, 25.


For the second and third quarter income, net profit attributable to mothers, net profit attributable to non-mothers was 23 respectively.

2, 3.

13, 3.

1.2 billion, an increase of 26 each year.

30%, 37.

96%, 32.

98%, revenue was in line with expectations, and profits exceeded expectations.

The volume of Bofen increased, and the income of Fenjiu (including sales companies, international trade, commerce and technology companies, etc.) increased rapidly in the first half of the year.

34 billion, a series of wine (Fen Brand + Xinghua Village) 4.

800 million to prepare wine 2.

01 billion + 33%. Due to changes in the disclosed statistical caliber, we estimated that the sales company’s growth rate exceeded 25% based on grassroots research. In addition to the second quarter of Fen’s suspension of rectification, other companies also achieved good growth.

In terms of different products, we expect that Bofen ‘s volume will increase by 60%, and Qing 20 will have a growth rate of nearly 40%.Both are the most stable.

Realize income within / outside the province31.


6.7 billion, excluding sales companies, other products mainly contribute revenue in the province. It is estimated that the sales company in the province alone has grown by nearly 20% in the first half of the year.

Notes receivable of the company at the end of the second quarter26.

1.9 billion, an increase of 6 from Q1.

8.2 billion, down 9 previously.

8.4 billion, the company uses a bill of exchange to improve the efficiency of dealers’ funds.

Q2 quarterly advance receipts 14.

8.1 billion, a month-on-month increase of 2 per year.

78, 6.

The 6.1 billion yuan was related to the price increase of Lao Baifen in the second quarter and the blue and 杭州桑拿 white price increase in July.

The acquisition and consolidation of Yiquan Yong Baoquan Chung also brought a substantial increase in cash payments for the purchase of commodities in the second quarter, and the net operating cash flow after the adjustment in the second quarter was -8.

1.4 billion, -2 in the same period last year.

9.2 billion.

Market launch expanded, net profit margin increased steadily and the company’s gross profit margin increased in the second quarter3.

29 points to 70.

60%, price increase, adjustment point adjustment range contribution, tax ratio, financial expense ratio decreased by 1.

75, 1.

15 points, sales expense ratio, management expense ratio increased by 4.48, 0.

38 single to 23.

02%, 7.

37%, the net profit in the second quarter alone increased by 0.

9 points to 13.


Overall net profit for the first half of the year was 18.

66% increased slightly by 0.

08 averages.

Among the selling expenses in the first half of the year, the relatively large advertising expenses increased by 38%, and the market development expenses increased by 190%, which is related to the company’s annual increase in out-of-province market expansion, basic market investment expansion, and terminal expansion investment.

The number of terminals at the end of the company was 31.

90,000, 46 by the end of May.

80,000, with an annual target of 550,000.

Profit forecast and rating: The “13313” pattern determined by the company this year, that is, a base market (Shanxi), three major sectors (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yulu, Shaanxi-Mongolia), three small market sectors (East China, Two Lakes, Southeast),13 An opportunistic market outside the province. The province has a stable tone to ensure healthy development. Outside the province, apart from the traditional advantage market in Shanxi, the rest are more focused and targeted.

From January to May outside the province, the growth rate reached more than 50%, and 22 markets were estimated. In the first half of the year, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Beijing each doubled, 70%, and 40%.Dazzling.

The company’s sales expenses in the first half of the year were faster than revenue, and more was spent on shaping the brand’s high-end image to guide end consumers and create consumption levels. There were also advances for some activities in the second half of the year.go.
It can be seen that each product since this year has gradually implemented a gradual system, more accurately controls the health of the channel operation, the market price of products has steadily increased, and dealers’ confidence has become stronger and stronger.

Since last year, the Group’s overall liquor assets listing has accelerated, and the brand slimming plan has been completed since the third quarter of 2018. The company has also set up a marketing reform office to take the Fen liquor brand as the leader and accelerate the sharing of resources with Zhuyeqing, Xinghuacun and Fen brand liquorAnd synergistic development.

We are optimistic about the company’s solid and excellent market in the province and the momentum of rapid development outside the province.
The EPS in 2021 is 2.

29, 2.

95, 3.

54 yuan / share, 30 times next year, with a target price of 88.

5 yuan, buy rating.

Risks suggest contradictory changes in the macro economy, and liquor sales are lower than expected;

Biyin Lefen (002832): Another push for employee share plans to share high growth

Biyin Lefen (002832): Another push for employee share plans to share high growth

Guide to this report: The company intends to use the repurchased shares to launch the second phase of employee stock ownership plan, showing confidence.

The development of stores has accelerated, the average store revenue has grown significantly, and the high performance growth has continued, maintaining an increase in holdings.

Event: The company plans to carry out the second phase of employee shareholding plan, raising funds not exceeding 100 million, and participating total number of employees not exceeding 900, of which 6 are supervisors, with a duration of 24 months and a lock-up period of 12 months.

The source of stocks for the employee shareholding plan is the shares repurchased by the company, and the purchase price is the average repurchase price.

According to the repurchase plan announced by the United Nations Army, the total amount of repurchases is between 50 million and 1 trillion, and the total number of repurchased shares is expected to be up to 2.38 million shares at a price not exceeding 42 per share.

The company adjusted the repurchase price up to 70 yuan / share later.

As of May 10, 2019, 186 had been repurchased.

290,000 shares, with a total turnover of 6774.

740,000 yuan, the average transaction price is up to 36.

37 yuan.

The company has not yet completed the share repurchase, which is still 3,225.

260,000 yuan repurchase quota.

Comment: Maintaining an Overweight Shareholding Rating: The company intends to use the repurchase shares to launch the second phase of the employee stock ownership plan, unlocking human potential, accelerating the expansion of store openings, improving store efficiency, and continuing to increase the sales boom, maintaining the EPS of 2019-2021.



65 yuan, maintaining the target price of 67.

80 yuan to maintain the overweight level.

The re-launch of employee stock ownership plans highlights confidence and keeps watch on value.

Following the first employee shareholding plan in January 2018, the company implemented it again, inspiring 900 employees of the company to help performance rise and share growth.

The first phase of the employee shareholding plan is 99.98 million yuan, the number of participants is 600, and the average transaction price is 59.

05 yuan / share, the corresponding cost after ex-dividend and ex-right is 34.

15 yuan / share.

The second phase of the launch has a wider coverage. The company encourages employees to release potential and promote performance growth through a sound internal incentive mechanism.

The dual measures of repurchase + employee shareholding plan demonstrate the company’s confidence, raise the upper limit of the repurchase price, release positive signals, and stimulate market sentiment.

The opening of the store was better than expected, and the efficiency of the single store improved.

Under the background of consumer pressure, the company’s sales in 2018 increased against the trend and its performance exceeded expectations.

On the basis of last year’s high base in 2019Q1, it continued to improve.

In 2018, the company’s net addition of 112 stores opened faster than expected.

Average store revenue is increasing by 19 per year.

44% to 193.

160,000 yuan, mainly due to the expansion of store area, 杭州桑拿 geographical optimization and celebrity spokespersons to increase brand exposure.

Channel expansion is in the ascendant, and online layout opens up space.

In the future, the company will consolidate the channel card advantage of first- and second-tier cities, deeply explore the high-end commercial circle market, and simultaneously sink the terminal, expanding the channel layout to third- and fourth-tier cities with better economy.

It is expected that there will be 2-3 times more space for future channels.

The company plans to actively deploy online channels, cooperate with well-known e-commerce in-depth cooperation, increase consumer access, and further open up imagination.

Risk warning: Channel expansion is less than expected, new brand promotion is less than expected, inventory impairment risk.

Tongkun Co. (601233) 2018 Annual Report Comment: PTA Prosperity Increased and Production Expanded to Consolidate the Leading Position of Polyester Filament + PTA

Tongkun Co. (601233) 2018 Annual Report Comment: PTA Prosperity Increased and Production Expanded to Consolidate the Leading Position of “Polyester Filament + PTA”

Event: On March 13, the company released its 2018 annual report, achieving operating income of US $ 41.6 billion, an annual increase of 27%; net profit of 21.

2 ‰, one year + 20%, that is, net profit of -3 in 2018Q4.

800 million, slightly lower than market expectations.

At the same time, the company announced a 2.3 billion convertible bond plan for 50-inch intelligent super-simulation fiber projects and 30-year green fiber projects.

Comment: In 2018, the prosperity of PTA improved, and the company’s capacity expansion fully benefited.

According to the industry data we observe, the average price of polyester filament POY increased by 1185 yuan / ton, and the average price difference increased by 23 yuan / ton; the average price of PTA increased by 1287 yuan / ton, and the average price difference increased by 217 yuan / ton.

The price trend rose first and then fell. It was the highest point in September 2018, and the highest quarter of 2018Q3.

In 2018, the company added 120 tons of polyester filament production capacity, increased filament production capacity to 570 tons, and polymerized production capacity of 520 tons. The second phase of Jiaxing Petrochemical PTA was successfully opened and the PTA production capacity increased to 370 tons.

In 2018, the company achieved sales of 451 tons of polyester filament and approximately 350 tons of PTA output.

According to our feed, the gross profit per ton of polyester filament is about 1063 yuan (including PTA benefits), then +215 yuan / ton.

Initial realization of net profit 21.

2 trillion, a single ton net profit of 470 yuan; of which, the PTA sector (Jiaxing Petrochemical) achieved a net profit of 8.

900 million US dollars, net profit per ton is about 250 yuan; polyester filament segment achieved net profit12.

3 trillion, net profit per ton is about 270 yuan.

In 2018Q4, the plunge of the filament was damaged, and in 2019Q1, the filament was generally profitable, but the PTA was acceptable.

Affected by the rapid price increase in the third quarter of 2018 and the decline in demand growth in the fourth quarter of 2018, the prices of polyester filament and PTA fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the fourth quarter performance was significantly affected by inventory losses.

At the end of the year, the company accrued 2.

The impairment loss of 900 million assets has been fully reflected in the decline in inventory losses.

According to the industry data we observe, in the first quarter of 2019, the average POY spread of polyester filament yarns was -271 yuan / ton, the average price difference of FDY + 313 yuan / ton, and the profit of the filament was weak; but the average price difference of PTA was only +117 yuan /Ton, profitability is still acceptable.
In terms of price, both filament and PTA increased slightly.

We expect the company’s 2019Q1 performance to exceed the downturn, but the 2019 PTA market is still worth looking forward to.

With the gradual commissioning of private large-scale refining and chemical 南京桑拿网 production, the large-scale release of domestic PX capacity will lead to a partial transfer of PX profits to downstream “polyester filament + PTA”, and “polyester filament + PTA” will continue to profit and remain stable.

In terms of PTA, increasing production capacity in 2019 exceeds the supplementary demand, and the spread is expected to further expand.

Expansion of production strengthened the “polyester filament + PTA” leading accessories.

The company’s existing polyester filament production capacity is 570 to 2020, and it plans to increase another 120 to 690 tons in 2019, focusing on production in the second quarter of 2019.

After 2019, there are 290 tons of polyamide polyester filament and 500 tons of PTA production expansion plans.

The company’s PTA increased production capacity to cover its own polyester 杭州夜网 filament demand and realized the integration of “polyester filament + PTA”.

With the expansion of downstream production capacity, the company will form a demand gap in raw material PX. ZPEC Phase I is expected to reach capacity in the second half of 2019.

The company owns a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 4,000 preliminary refining and integration project, and the first phase of 2000 will reach production in the second half of 2019.

While completing the upward integration, investment income will also increase significantly.

Maintain “Buy” rating and adjust target price to 15.

3 yuan.

Based on a cautious estimate of polyester filament market, we maintain 2019 EPS as 1.

37 yuan, lowered the EPS in 2020 to 1.

66 yuan (was 1).

37 yuan and 1.

71 yuan), plus 2021 EPS is 2.

12 yuan.The current sustainable corresponding PE is 10/8/6 times.

Due to the upward movement of the overall market assessment, we averaged 11 in 2019 based on industry comparable companies.

The 1x PE calculation target price is 15.

3 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: the end of the filament boom cycle; the PTA boom is worse than expected; the production progress and profit of the Zhejiang Petrochemical project are worse than expected.

Northbound capital inflows exceed 80 billion during the year and resumes pursuit of traditional white horse large-cap stocks

Northbound capital inflows exceed 80 billion during the year and resumes pursuit of traditional white horse large-cap stocks

Original title: Net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 80 billion during the year, and resumed the pursuit of traditional white horse large-cap stocks. On February 20, the bulls staged a forced short market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets once again increased in volume, and the daily limit of the two cities exceeded 100., Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.

84% at 3030.

At 15 o’clock, the station successfully reached the 3000-point mark; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange rose 2.

43% at 11,509.

09 points; GEM Index rose 2.

21% to 2186.

74 points.

  Net inflow of northbound funds for the second consecutive trading day, especially accelerated inflows late.

As of the close of February 20, the total net inflow of northbound funds was 38.

9.7 billion yuan.

Among them, Shanghai Stock Connect has a net inflow of 10.

6.4 billion yuan, the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Exchange 28.

3.3 billion yuan.

  Since then, the net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 80 billion since 2020, reaching 804.

3.6 billion.

Among them, Shanghai Stock Connect had a net inflow of 375.

There were 2.8 billion yuan in net inflows from Shenzhen Stock Connect to 429.

09 billion.

  However, since the opening of the Lunar Year of the Rat, that is, February 3, Northbound funds seem to have resumed their pursuit of traditional white horse large-cap stocks.

Statistics show that since February 3, the total net inflow of northbound funds has been 420.

4.4 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 262.

7.9 billion yuan, Shenzhen Stock Exchange net inflow of 157.

6.5 billion.

  Recently, Northbound funds have bought a lot of stocks with a net cash amount. Too many of them are traditional white horse stocks that have continued to increase over the course of Northbound funds. Guizhou Maotai (600519) is still the most popular target of Northbound funds.

Among the top ten stocks traded on the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect on February 20, Guizhou Moutai, Ningde Times, and China National Travel Service received net purchases of 7, respectively.

2.5 billion, 4.

5.2 billion, 3.

4.7 billion yuan.

Ping An of China ranked first in net sales, with an amount of 3.

2.2 billion.

Hikvision, BOE A were net sold 2 respectively.

1 billion yuan, 1.

0.5 billion.

  At the same time, the international index’s expansion of the A-share division factor will also promote a net inflow of northbound funds.

FTSE Russell recently said that the expansion of the A-share division factor in the third quarter of March this year will not be affected by the epidemic and will proceed as scheduled.

Guojin Securities believes that this expansion will bring about $ 28 billion in passive incremental funds.

In the short term, passive incremental capital inflows will drive market sentiment, and many will enter at the same time as investment funds.

  Haitong Securities believes that the market has been seriously overbought in the short term. At present, investors are advised to stay drunk while staying awake. Investors holding these mainstream sectors can still enjoy the trend and follow 合肥夜网 the trend. There is no mainstream sector positionInvestors must pay attention to pursuing high risks. Due to the huge profitability of these sectors, major adjustments may occur at any time. If you want to increase your position, it is recommended to choose some technology stocks that are still low.In terms of specific operations, investors are still advised to repeatedly dig deeper into 5G, big data cloud computing, industrial Internet and new energy vehicles, and high-quality enterprises in the connected car industry chain, and actively absorb dips.

  The strategy team of Tianfeng Securities pointed out that after the completion of MSCI’s “three steps” expansion of A shares, it may be in the “gap period” in the future.

In this context, industrial trends and the integration of individual stock industries (corresponding 厦门夜网 to the report, that is, the stability and sustainability of performance) are factors to consider in the allocation of exchanges. In the long run, consumption (China’s dominant industry) and technology (new) Industry trends) will be more favored.

  The agency believes that foreign behavior is not static but changes as industry trends develop.

The huge domestic consumer market and the increase in per capita consumption levels, using the consumer industry to obtain long-term growth space, consumer blue chips have long been the core assets of foreign allocation.

In addition, the technology industry trend is the most important main line in the next few years. The rise of 5G, new energy automobile and other industrial trends will bring ToC applications (cloud games, VRAR games), and ToB applications (big data, industrial Internet, physicalInternet, artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, etc. are gradually implemented, and the industry chain will generate more investment opportunities, but in the end, there are a small number of companies that can continue to show their performance, which is still subject to long-term market verification.

BYD (002594): High growth in the first half of the year awaits heavy volume of new models

BYD (002594): High growth in the first half of the year awaits heavy volume of new models

Event Overview 2019H1 achieved revenue of 621.

800 million, an increase of 14 in ten years.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 14.

5 ppm, an increase of 203 in ten years.

6%, net profit after deducting non-return to mother 7.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 210 in ten years.


Among them, 2019Q2 revenue was 318.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

4%; net profit attributable to mother 7.

1 ppm, an increase of 87 in ten years.


After deducting non-return to mother’s net profit3.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 195 in ten years.


2019Q1-Q3 performance indicators: Expected net profit attributable to mother 15.

6 ppm-17.

6 trillion, corresponding to the growth rate of 1.

8% -14.


  Analysis and judgment: The sales of new energy vehicles have significantly increased driving revenue growth. In terms of business, 2019H1 automotive business, mobile phone foundry, and secondary battery revenue were 339.

800 million, 233.

200 million, 44.

500 million, the annual growth rate was 16.

3%, 14.

4%, -1


1) Automotive business: 2019H1 new energy vehicle revenue 254.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.

8%, the 厦门夜网 proportion of revenue further increased to 40.

9%, benefiting from the high growth of the company’s new energy vehicle sales.

According to the data of China Automobile Association, the cumulative sales volume of BYD new energy vehicles in 2019H1 is 15.

730,000 vehicles, an increase of 74 in ten years.

34%, a significant increase in sales driven revenue growth.

2) Mobile phone foundry: 2017H1 and 2018H1 basically maintained a steady growth of 10% +, and continued to grow at about 4% in 2017 and 2018.

3) Secondary batteries: For the time being, it is mainly dragged down by the photovoltaic business. The domestic installed capacity of photovoltaics in 2019H1 is 11.

4 GW, a decrease of more than 50%.

  Expense control strengthened to enhance profitability 2019H1 company gross profit margin17.
1%, increase by 1 every year.
2杭州桑拿pct, mainly due to the significant increase in the gross profit margin of the automotive business.

In terms of products, the gross profit margin of the automotive business in 2019H1 was 23.

2%, an increase of 4 per year.

5pct; mobile phone foundry gross margin is 8.

6%, a decline of 3 per year.

9 points.

Net interest rate 2.

7%, increase by 1 every year.

0pct, mainly due to the strengthening of cost management and control caused the continuous decline in sales expense ratio1.

2 points to 3.

7%, the financial expense ratio fell slightly to zero in ten years.

2 points to 2.


The management expense ratio and R & D expense ratio increase slightly every year.

1pct and 0.


In a single quarter, the gross profit margin for 2019Q2 was 15.

8%, 0 per year.

4pct, net interest rate 2.

4%, a year to raise 0.

3pct, R & D expense ratio, management expense ratio, and sales expense ratio decreased by 3.

3pct, 2.

8pct, 1.


  Focus on new energy vehicle business: short-term new model-driven growth, long-term focus on increasing urban share.

  The continuously developing new energy vehicle business and the continuous development of gradual research and development. The company has achieved independent control of the technology of the new energy vehicle industry chain in power batteries and IGBTs, and has continuously improved its product line, covering both pure electric and hybrid technology routes., From the low-end to the high-end, from A00 to B, to meet a variety of consumer needs.

The company announced the sales of Xinneng Automobile in July 20191.

70,000 vehicles, down 11 every year.

8%, mainly due to subsidy decline and superimposed off-season effects.

The supplementary tax rebate caused short-term pressure on the company’s performance, but in the long run, it promotes the advantages and disadvantages of the new energy vehicle industry. The company is committed to introducing the independent controllable advantages of the new energy vehicle industry technology and the entire product line to gain more market share.

And the double-point policy relays the compensation for the downgrade to ensure the growth of the industry. Through the second half of the year, the company will launch new models such as e2, e3, the new Qin EV and e1, and a new generation of Song.High growth rate.

  Investment suggestions We believe that the company’s new energy vehicles are expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2019, and it is expected to become an independent and controllable technological advantage of core components and improve its product line to gain more market share. It is expected that revenues will increase by 15 in 2019-2020.

7% and an increase of 18.

1%, reaching 1505.

3 ppm and 1777.

500 million, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 16.

6% and an increase of 32.

8%, reaching 32.

4 ppm and 43.
0 million yuan, EPS is 1.
19 yuan and 1.

58 yuan, corresponding to 43 times and 33 times of the current PE.

With reference to the company’s historical PE interval center 35-38 times, in view of the company’s new models launched this year, the company’s PE estimate for 37 times in 2020, the target price of 58.

46 yuan, the first coverage given “overweight” rating.

  Risks suggest that the sales volume of the new energy automobile industry is lower than expected, the sales of new models are lower than expected, and the market share is lower than expected.